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| Scene from Cats (2019) |
Next to Avengers: Endgame and Joker, the film that most haven't stopped talking about are director Tom Hooper's Cats. It's hard to tell how much of that buzz is genuine excitement and how many wants to believe they're seeing the next big trainwreck. However, given that the last three films that Hooper has made (The King's Speech, Les Miserables, and The Danish Girl) all won at least one Oscar, it's hard to not consider him out of the race entirely. Even then, there's one factor that will play against him if things aren't so careful: time. Yes, time finds Hooper and his Jellicle cats finding a deadline that could hurt their Oscar chances if they're not careful. With the threat of missing deadlines for major awards branches like the Golden Globes, Cats may have trouble getting much traction.
While it may be absurd, the numbers don't lie. Cats is a musical based on one of the longest-running Broadway shows in history. It's become so much a part of the zeitgeist that it's been parodied for over 30 years now. Considering how many of composer Andrew Lloyd Webber's other works have made it to celluloid, one has to wonder why it took so long for this one. It seems like there was an audience built-in, though considering how divisive the first trailer was, it may be easy to see why. With many joking that it will dominate the Oscars, it has lead to one odd reality: it may get there, but it will have a big hill to climb if it plans to get halfway there at all.
As of today, Cats isn't fully ready to come off the assembly line. There is nothing that will have it ready by the end of the month and will be cutting it short. For instance, The Golden Globes deadline is December 4, and thus would be cutting it close for voters to see the film (though given their love of nominating dreck like The Tourist, it may not be an issue). Many other branches cut off voting around this time, meaning that if Cats makes it release day (December 25) without a lot of press screenings, it will have less of a leg to stand on when people go to vote for it. Meanwhile, other Winter festivities like Little Women have not only made the rounds but have gained traction thanks to strong positive buzz.
Considering that the Oscars telecast will be held on February 9 as well, voting will be closed by January 7, roughly two weeks after its theatrical opening and during a key point when voters are watching other screeners. It could still happen, as filmmakers like Clint Eastwood have won favors with surprise releases. However, it's not enough to guarantee, especially if the voting body is more divisive on the film, or if it fails to resonate as much as its build-up buzz would suggest. As one of the biggest movies of the year and coming from Hooper, there is still a chance for a surprise. Maybe the film will miraculously be done in time. Otherwise, it will be a tough call given how much has already stood out this year.
It was always going to be a tough sell for Cats to be an Oscar contender. However, this wouldn't be the first Christmas Day-release musical from Hooper. It gives him a reputation that gives him the benefit of the doubt. But what if this ends up being a crowd-pleaser and nothing else? There are still so many questions left to ask and answer. That's partially exciting, but for a campaign that still hasn't fully taken shape, it's weird to think that it's not further along. Will it be the miracle we all have been undermining, or is it going to be the mess we've expected? Whatever the case may be, it's going to be interesting to see how many lives this film will have in the awards season.
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