A Look Back at My Pre-Season Oscar Nominations: How'd I Do?

Christian Bale in Vice

This past Tuesday marked one of the best days of the year. It was when the Oscar nominations were announced. If you're like me, it's one of the most exciting days of the year when things finally get cleared up and suddenly everything begins to make sense. However, it's also a chance when I get to look back and ask myself: how good of a prognosticator am I really? I usually post a line-up pre-Oscar season, or late August. I want to see if the buzz around films can sustain as the narratives are finally shaped into what they will be come. So, how did I do this year? In a period where everything is unpredictable, it's a tad hard to call my line-ups a success. The following is a list of the actual nominees followed by what actually made the category. Trust me, it's pretty embarrassing and reflective of something more in tune with what a "classical" Oscar year might have looked like. 

*Note: At time of publication, August 2018, the Adam McKay film Vice was known under the name Backseat.

PREDICTIONS:

Best Picture

-Roma

-First Man

-The Front-Runner

-A Star is Born

-Black Panther

-If Beale Street Could Talk

-Widows

-Backseat

-Boy Erased

ACTUAL RESULTS:

Best Picture
-BlacKkKlansman
-Black Panther
-Bohemian Rhapsody
-The Favourite
-Green Book
-Roma
-A Star is Born
-Vice

ACCURACY: 4 out of 8 (50%)

By all accounts, Green Book was the true surprise upset of 2018 as it won critics group awards and set itself as the film to beat. Still, my skepticism that BlacKkKlansman would even be nominated was thankfully proven to be false. Still, the absence of such obvious favorites as First Man and Widows feel like victims of poor box office. Then again, The Front Runner wasn't Jason Reitman's ascension back into Oscar glory, instead fading into obscurity and proving that Hugh Jackman's post-X-Men career isn't going to be a cakewalk at the box office.

PREDICTIONS:

Best Director

-Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)

-Damien Chazelle (First Man)

-Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)

-Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

-Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)

ACTUAL RESULTS:

Best Director
-Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
-Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
-Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
-Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
-Adam McKay (Vice)

ACCURACY: 2 out of 5 (40%)

It has already been announced that Bradley Cooper's Best Director snub is one of the most famous of this year's line-up, especially given the film's status as a crowd pleaser. Still, it's disappointing to see If Beale Street Could Talk miss the cut and First Man established Damien Chazelle as a director who could work on a bigger scope. Still, the best surprises came in the dual foreign language nominees for Cold War and Roma. Also given that 3/5 of the nominees are non-American filmmakers (including one of my personal favorites of the season: Yorgos Lanthimos), this is a pretty solid line-up to totally botch the results on, even if I'd still argue that Vice wasn't quite Best Director worthy.

PREDICTIONS:

Best Actor

-Ryan Gosling (First Man)

-Hugh Jackman (The Front Runner)

-Christian Bale (Backseat)

-Robert Redford (The Old Man and the Gun)

-Lucas Hedges (Boy Erased)

ACTUAL RESULTS

Best Actor
-Christian Bale (Vice)
-Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
-Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
-Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
-Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

ACCURACY: 1 out of 5 (20%)

While I nailed the Christian Bale nomination, it's weird that even as I predicted A Star is Born as a crowd favorite, I didn't think to nominate Bradley Cooper. Also, the whole campaign around Willem Dafoe ironically developed mere DAYS after I wrote up my predictions, which seems a bit unfair. Besides Robert Redford missing out, the other picks in general are victims of films that under performed at the box office. It makes sense to see films like Bohemian Rhapsody and Greek Book here over the more ignored Beautiful Boy and The Front Runner (a now ironic name if there ever was one). There's a lot to mull over here, and mostly strong evidence of just how unpredictable this year would become.


PREDICTIONS:

Best Actress

-Lady GaGa (A Star is Born)

-Toni Collette (Hereditary)

-Saoirse Ronan (Mary Queen of Scots)

-Viola Davis (Widows)

-Felicity Jones (On the Basis of Sex)

ACTUAL RESULTS:

Best Actress
-Glenn Close (The Wife)
-Lady GaGa (A Star is Born)
-Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
-Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
-Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

ACCURACY: 1 out of 5 (20%)

This is another case of going with the tried and true list over practical and random ones. It felt like after Lady Bird that Saoirse Ronan would follow it up with another Oscar nomination. Instead it became a little more complex. I'm personally disappointed that Widows failed to perform at any nominations, and the idea that The Academy would embrace horror didn't pan out. However, I am excited to see Yalitza Aparicio show up strong. I also thought that after Lanthimos' The Killing of a Sacred Deer that he was going to make another esoteric and isolating film. Instead, he made one of his best. I'm excited to see The Favourite on here, though it's Glenn Close's Oscar to lose, especially after her memorable Golden Globes speech.

PREDICTIONS:

Best Supporting Actor

-Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

-Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)

-Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)

-Bryan Tyree Henry (If Beale Street Could Talk)

-Sam Rockwell (Backseat)

ACTUAL RESULTS:

Best Supporting Actor
-Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
-Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
-Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
-Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
-Sam Rockwell (Vice)

ACCURACY: 2 out of 5 (40%)

What I find particularly admirable is that my prediction overlap wasn't for the obvious picks. While I had seen BlacKkKlansman by this point, I still had a thought that it was maybe too confrontational for The Academy. Still, it's great to see Adam Driver finally nominated. I am not wild about the Sam Rockwell nomination, even if it makes sense. Still, I wasn't aware of Green Book at the time nor was I aware that Sam Elliott would turn in such an effective performance in A Star is Born. By some irony, it's looking like this will be among my highest rated categories this year, which is overall disappointing.

PREDICTIONS:

Best Supporting Actress

-Claire Foy (First Man)

-Nicole Kidman (Boy Erased)

-Emma Stone (The Favourite)

-Margot Robbie (Mary Queen of Scots)

-Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

ACTUAL RESULTS:

Best Supporting Actress
-Amy Adams (Vice)
-Marina de Tavira (Roma)
-Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
-Emma Stone (The Favourite)
-Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)

ACCURACY: 2 out of 5 (40%)

It is maybe a bit funny that the film that I thought would have two strong female performances (Mary Queen of Scots) ended up not making the cut. Instead, The Favourite got three nominations, including two in this category. Still, it's a bummer to not see Claire Foy make the cut, and the idea that Margot Robbie would follow up I, Tonya with another nomination is apparently foolish. Still, I am glad that Regina King made the cut, if just because it showed that the film was resonating with someone. I also couldn't predict that Marina de Tavira would be nominated, in part because of my lack of knowledge of its stars. Still, it's strange that I guessed so much love for Vice but didn't think to include perennial Oscar nominee Amy Adams in the guesses. 



This just goes to show that while the race may seem predictable now, there was a time when it didn't make much sense. In fact, it looks extremely ridiculous in hindsight. While it's a bummer to see films like Widows, First Man, and Hereditary not showing up as strong as I had hoped it's still another decent year with many surprises. What did you think was going to make the cut and didn't, especially if you guessed BEFORE the awards began being handed out?