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| Scene from BlacKkKlansman |
This past Tuesday marked the announcement for this year's Oscar nominations. If you're like me, it was quite a wonderful day full of surprises both great and awful. While there will be plenty of prognostication to come, there is a certain thing that is true: my predictions are now dated. I previously posted how my predictions from August 2018 are now even more of a joke. So, before we get too far into the final stretch of Oscar season, it's time to look at the last grasp to guess the wildness of this year's nominees, or lack thereof. How did I do? Join me in looking back and laughing at what I got wrong and how things actually turned out.
PREDICTIONS:
Best Picture
-BlacKkKlansman
-Black Panther
-Bohemian Rhapsody
-The Favourite
-Green Book
-If Beale Street Could Talk
-Roma
-A Star is Born
-Vice
ACTUAL RESULTS:
Best Picture
-BlacKkKlansman
-Black Panther
-Bohemian Rhapsody
-The Favourite
-Green Book
-Roma
-A Star is Born
-Vice
ACCURACY: 8 out of 8 (subtract 10% for too many predictions) (90%)
While it isn't an ideal line-up for me in some places, it's still exciting to see such a weird line-up for a year mired in controversy. It has the heavyweight and hard hitting films like BlacKkKlansman along with crowd favorites like A Star is Born and Green Book. It's not the best line-up that could've been, but it's definitely reflective of a diverse of voters, even if the controversy around Bohemian Rhapsody will make many decry its existence in the category.
PREDICTIONS:
Best Director
-Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
-Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
-Peter Farrelly (Green Book)
-Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
-Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
ACTUAL RESULTS:
Best Director
-Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
-Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
-Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
-Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
-Adam McKay (Vice)
ACCURACY: 3 out of 5 (60%)
There's plenty of relief in seeing Peter Farrelly miss the cut, especially given his problematic past and general flippant and dated nature regarding the racism his film has been about. Still, the fact that Spike Lee and Yorgos Lanthimos made the cut are good signs of how diverse this year is. Add in Pawel Pawlikowski as the rare double foreign language film nominee and you get one of the most exciting Best Director races in years. While I'm not entirely sure why Adam McKay is on this list, I am hoping that Alfonso Cuaron manages to go all the way. It would not only be an Oscar first, but it would also be the most deserved of really any of the major nominees.
PREDICTIONS:
Best Actor
-John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)
-Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
-Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
-Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
-Christian Bale (Vice)
ACTUAL RESULTS:
Best Actor
-Christian Bale (Vice)
-Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
-Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
-Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
-Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
ACCURACY: 4 out of 5 (80%)
For the most part this was one of those predictable categories that slowly formed into its final form. While it's disappointing to see John David Washington miss the cut, the knowledge that Bohemian Rhapsody was a big hit internationally makes sense then why it wound up showing up as strong as it did - especially in the wake of a failed Best Popular Film Oscar category. While this is room where Black Panther also could've gone, it's a fine line-up through and through.
PREDICTIONS:
Best Actress
-Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
-Emily Blunt (Mary Poppins Returns)
-Yalitiza Aparicio (Roma)
-Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
-Glenn Close (The Wife)
ACTUAL RESULTS:
Best Actress
-Glenn Close (The Wife)
-Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
-Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
-Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
-Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
ACCURACY: 4 out of 5
I will admit that finding the fifth nominee in this category was a bit of a stretch. To some extent the idea of Mary Poppins Returns making the cut was a long shot, but still produced a lot of potential given its late season debut and the overdue Oscar nomination for Emily Blunt. Still, the fifth spot going to Melissa McCarthy makes sense given her gradual Oscar campaign and the prestige she's built up over the season. If anything, the strong presence of Roma and The Favourite is an exciting addition to this year's ceremony and show make things a lot more interesting when the race gets into full swing.
PREDICTIONS:
Best Supporting Actor
-Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
-Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
-Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)
-Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
-Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
ACTUAL RESULTS:
Best Supporting Actor
-Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
-Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
-Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
-Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
-Sam Rockwell (Vice)
ACCURACY: 3 out of 5 (60%)
This was one of those categories that was strongly up in the air. It's hard to guess what most of the nominees would be. While it's great to see Adam Driver and Sam Elliott on here, one has to wonder why Sam Rockwell's bit part role in Vice is here. Also, it's odd to not see Timothee Chalamet here, especially following his Call Me By Your Name breakout role. Still, the strangest excision is Michael B. Jordan, whose performance was one of the best of modern superhero cinema. It would've been a great addition to Black Panther's incredible presence in the Oscar race, and would help to forward the conversation about superhero cinema being a legitimate art form.
PREDICTIONS:
Best Supporting Actress
-Michelle Yeoh (Crazy Rich Asians)
-Emma Stone (The Favourite)
-Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
-Linda Cardellini (Green Book)
-Rachel King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
ACTUAL RESULTS:
Best Supporting Actress
-Amy Adams (Vice)
-Marina de Tavira (Roma)
-Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
-Emma Stone (The Favourite)
-Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
ACCURACY: 3 out of 5 (60%)
This is another case of the category possibly being more interesting than how things turned out. With The Academy wanting to be more representative of quality popular films, it seems weird that Crazy Rich Asians was entirely shut out from every category. Also, it's weird that Linda Cardellini didn't make the cut given Green Book's overall success. Still, it's great to see The Favourite and If Beale Street Could Talk on here, if just because they were quality films that to some extent felt like long shots at one point (still true for the latter).
What do your predictions look like? Did you do better than me?
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