When is the Best Month to Release a Best Picture Winner?

Humphrey Bogart in Casablanca

As we enter the period before next year's Oscar season picks up, there is a question that I ask of every film: will this stand a chance in the Best Picture race? While the majority of films I cover in this time can be niche and don't fit into this category, there are plenty of prestige titles mixed in. It is generally perceived that "serious" contenders don't open until September and while this year proved to be no exception, I felt the need to look back at the history of the Oscars and find out when each of the Best Pictures were released to see if this pattern holds up. In reality, it is only a recent phenomenon that hopefully will be sidetracked when a gem comes out earlier in the year (Can The Grand Budapest Hotel be that exception?). The following is a look at the release dates for all 86 winners based on information available regarding their widest American release.

January

JAN. ?, 1949 - All the King's Men (Dir. Robert Rossen)

JAN. 4, 2002 - A Beautiful Mind (Dir. Ron Howard)

JAN. 10, 1952- The Greatest Show on Earth (Dir. Cecil B. DeMille)
JAN. 17, 1940 - Gone with the Wind (Dir. Victor Fleming)

JAN. 20, 2011 - The Artist (Dir. Michel Hazanavicius)

JAN. 23, 1943 - Casablanca (Dir. Michael Curtiz)

JAN. 23, 2008 - Slumdog Millionaire (Dir. Danny Boyle)

February

FEB. 1, 1929 - The Broadway Melody (Dir. Harry Beaumont)
FEB. 6, 1987 - Platoon (Dir. Oliver Stone)

FEB. 9, 1931 - Cimarron (DIr. Wesley Ruggles)

FEB. 14, 1991 - Silence of the Lambs (Dir. Jonathan Demme)

FEB. 22, 1934 - It Happened One Night (Dir. Frank Capra)

FEB. 23, 1978 - The Deer Hunter (Dir. Michael Cimino)

March

MAR. 2, 1965 - The Sound of Music (Dir. Robert Wise)

MAR. 15, 1972 - The Godfather (Dir. Francis Ford Coppola)

MAR. 30, 1981 - Chariots of Fire (Dir. Hugh Hudson)

April

APR. 2, 1970 - Patton (Dir. Franklin J. Schaffner)

APR. 8, 1936 - The Great Ziegfeld (Dir. Robert Z. Leonard)

APR. 11, 1955 - Marty (Dir. Delbert Mann)

APR. 12, 1940 - Rebecca (Dir. Alfred Hitchcock)

APR. 12, 1932 - Grand Hotel (Dir. Edmund Goulding)

APR. 15, 1933 - Cavalcade (Dir. Frank Lloyd)
APR. 15, 1988 - The Last Emperor (Dir. Bernardo Bertolucci)

APR. 20, 1977 - Annie Hall (Dir. Woody Allen)

APR. 21, 1930 - All Quiet on the Western Front (Dir. Lewis Milestone)

May

MAY 2, 1995 - Braveheart (Dir. Mel Gibson)

MAY 3, 1944 - Going My Way (Dir. Leo McCarey)

MAY 4, 1948 - Hamlet (Dir. Laurence Olivier)

MAY 5, 2000 - Gladiator (Dir. Ridley Scott)

MAY 6, 2005 - Crash (Dir. Paul Haggis)

MAY 15, 1958 - Gigi (Dir. Vincente Minnelli)

MAY 25, 1969 - Midnight Cowboy (Dir. John Schlesinger)

June

JUN. 4 - Mrs. Miniver (Dir. William Wyler)

JUN. 15, 1960 - The Apartment (Dir. Billy Wilder)

JUN 26, 2009 - The Hurt Locker (Dir. Kathryn Bigelow)

July

JUL. 6, 1994 - Forrest Gump (Dir. Robert Zemeckis)

JUL. 28, 1954 - On the Waterfront (Dir. Elia Kazan)

August

AUG. 2, 1967 - In the Heat of the Night (Dir. Norman Jewison)

AUG. 5, 1953 - From Here to Eternity (Dir. Fred Zinnemann)

AUG. 7, 1993 - Unforgiven (Dir. Clint Eastwood)

AUG 11, 1937 - The Life of Emile Zola (Dir. William Dieterle)

AUG 12, 1927 - Wings (Dir. William A. Wellman)

AUG 28, 1938 - You Can't Take it With You (Dir. Frank Capra)

September

SEPT. 17, 1999 - American Beauty (Dir. Sam Mendes)

SEPT. 19, 1980 - Ordinary People (Dir. Robert Redford)

SEPT. 19, 1984 - Amadeus (Dir. Milos Forman)

SEPT. 26, 1968 - Oliver! (Dir. Carol Reed)

October

OCT. 6, 2006 - The Departed (Dir. Martin Scorsese)

OCT. 9, 1971 - The French Connection (Dir. William Friedkin)

OCT. 12, 2012 - Argo (Dir. Ben Affleck)

OCT. 13, 1950 - All About Eve (Dir. Joseph L. Mankiewicz)

OCT. 17, 1956 - Around the World in 80 Days (Dir. Michael Anderson)

OCT. 18, 1961 - West Side Story (Dir. Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins)

OCT. 24, 1963 - Tom Jones (Dir. Tony Richardson)

OCT. 21, 1964 - My Fair Lady (Dir. George Cukor)

OCT. 28, 1941 - How Green Was My Valley (Dir. John Ford)

November

NOV. 8, 1935 - Mutiny on the Bounty (Dir. Frank Lloyd)

NOV. 8, 2013 - 12 Years a Slave (Dir. Steve McQueen)

NOV. 9, 1990 - Dances With Wolves (Dir. Kevin Costner)

NOV. 9. 2007 - No Country for Old Men (Dir. Joel and Ethan Coen)

NOV. 11, 1951 - An American in Paris (Dir. Vincente Minnelli)

NOV. 11, 1947 - Gentleman's Agreement (Dir. Elia Kazan)
NOV. 14. 2014 - Birdman (Dir. Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu)

NOV. 15, 1996 - The English Patient (Dir. Anthony Minghella)

NOV. 16, 1945 - The Lost Weekend (Dir. Billy Wilder)

NOV. 18, 1959 - Ben-Hur (Dir. William Wyler)

NOV. 19, 1975 - One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (Dir. Milos Forman)

NOV. 21, 1946 - The Best Years of Our Lives (Dir. William Wyler)

December

DEC. 2, 1982 - Gandhi (Dir. Richard Attenborough)

DEC. 3, 1976 - Rocky (Dir. John G. Avildsen)

DEC. 3, 1998 - Shakespeare in Love (Dir. John Madden)

DEC. 9, 1983 - Terms of Endearment (Dir. James L. Brooks)

DEC. 10, 1962 - Lawrence of Arabia (Dir. David Lean)

DEC. 12, 1966 - A Man For All Seasons (Dir. Fred Zinnemann)

DEC. 14, 1957 - The Bridge on the River Kwai (Dir. David Lean)

DEC. 15, 1989 - Driving Miss Daisy (Dir. Bruce Beresford)

DEC. 15, 1993 - Schindler's List (Dir. Steven Spielberg)

DEC. 15, 2004 - Million Dollar Baby (Dir. Clint Eastwood)

DEC. 16, 1988 - Rain Man (Dir. Barry Levinson)

DEC. 17, 2003 - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (Dir. Peter Jackson)

DEC. 18, 1985 - Out of Africa (Dir. Sidney Pollack)

DEC. 19, 1979 - Kramer vs. Kramer (Dir. Robert Benton)

DEC. 19, 1997 - Titanic (Dir. James Cameron)

DEC. 20, 1974 - The Godfather: Part II (Dir. Francis Ford Coppola)

DEC. 24, 2010 - The King's Speech (Dir. Tom Hooper)

DEC. 25, 1973 - The Sting (Dir. George Roy Hill)

DEC. 27, 2002 - Chicago (Dir. Rob Marshall)

Most Popular Month: December (20)

Least Popular Month: July (2)

While there isn't much surprise to be discovered in a hefty majority of the films winning Best Picture are released in the latter months, it should be noted that this trend started mostly around the 80's with 7 out of the 10 released in December and all except one released before September. This suggests that as time went on, the Academy established a structure that made the latter half of the year a "prestige" period. However, if one is observant, that doesn't discount that every month has its share of great films, including The Godfather in March and Silence of the Lambs and The Deer Hunter in February. In a sense, this helps to add weight to the idea that the early months aren't prestigious months, as the there hasn't been much in recent years, or the past two decades, to suggest that a film coming out in that period will likely be an Oscar darling.

However, the interesting fact is that January isn't the worst month for releases. In fact,  29 winners came out before June. However, it is unlikely with strategies and marketing these days that films will stand a chance if they come out around this time. At most, we can expect a really stellar nominee to break through and get a nomination. Who knows. Either way, it isn't quite as black and white as things would suggest, and this will hopefully serve as an eye opener for those wondering if films from the first half of the year are viable candidates. If the film is great, it sure is.