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| Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks |
We are officially in the Oscar Buzz zone! It is the exciting time that gave birth to this particular blog and helped to chronicle just how much I enjoy the awards ceremony. The notable highlight of the season is that anything goes for the first few months. If you have a favorite, there's a good chance that they could make the cut. The speculation sees some of the most ridiculous forms of enthusiasm unfold. While there's some categories that are as yet undecided, many are already in the process of solidifying. This is my attempt to predict what will make the cut before the awards season begins.
In the process of researching this entry, I mostly consulted my personal thoughts mixed with trusted statistics website Gold Derby. While I found myself agreeing with a lot of what the page had to say, I believe that the page will rapidly change month-to-month and almost as soon as they topped the page, they will disappear and some random name will come. I decided to take risks in some places and others played it safe. I still personally believe that Saving Mr. Banks will come up the most successful. I am not here to predict winners, but just the nominees.
As you will see in a few of the categories, I had some faulty information. While it could largely be due to lack of provided public information, several of the acting categories feature repeated names. This happened last year famously with Christoph Waltz being negotiated between Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor (he landed in the latter and won). My way around this is to note when this occurs and explain who they would replace. I have also listed five potential upsets in case this turns out to be one of the more unexpected years. For example, Foxcatcher and August: Osage County are two potential upsets.
While I will attempt to keep the piece to bare bones, I will write a companion notes section following each section explaining my general thoughts on confidence in the category. For example, I am not entirely confident with the Best Supporting Actress field. Check out my selection and let me know if you agree or disagree and if you believe that there will be any upsets.
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| Christian Bale in American Hustle |
Best Picture
1. American Hustle
2. The Butler
3. Foxcatcher
4. Fruitvale Station
5. Inside Llewyn Davis
6. Rush
7. Saving Mr. Banks
8. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
9. 12 Years a Slave
10. The Wolf of Wall Street
Potential Upsets:
1. August: Osage County
2. Gravity
3. Labor Day
4. The Monuments Men
5. Nebraska
Comments:
Despite my initial belief that The Monuments Men would have a lot of traction, the press around it has suggested that it isn't being marketed as an Oscar contender. With that in mind, I have hopes that it could be as great as everyone assumes, but probably won't make the cut. While the actual category is a 5-10 sliding scale, I like to play to maximum capacity and believe that of the selections, Foxcatcher is going to be the surprise success story and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, despite being sold as this odd desperate contender, will get in simply to show variety. Rush will almost make the cut simply because director Ron Howard has won before and this looks to be one of his more impressive efforts. I would love to see Gravity make the cut, but the race is already packed and may unfortunately be overlooked.
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| Left to right: Chris Hemsworth and Daniel Bruhl in Rush |
Best Director
1. American Hustle - David O. Russell
2. Inside Llewyn Davis - Joel and Ethan Coen
3. Rush - Ron Howard
4. Saving Mr. Banks - John Lee Hancock
5. The Wolf of Wall Street - Martin Scorsese
Potential Upsets:
1. Foxcatcher - Bennett Miller
2. Fruitvale Station - Ryan Coogler
3. Gravity - Alfonso Cuaron
4. The Monuments Men - George Clooney
5. 12 Years a Slave - Steve McQueen
Comments:
I am placing a lot of hope in 12 Years a Slave becoming one of the surprise success stories of the Fall. Depending on the success, I can easily see Steve McQueen making the cut. Also, while little has been seen around Foxcatcher, Bennett Miller previous was nominated in this category for Capote, which makes his odds slightly more intriguing. Besides the obvious heavyweights in the race, I don't see this being a year too different. As I have stated numerous times, I would love at very least for the Academy to recognize Gravity for its sheer ambition, regardless on if it makes the Best Picture race. However, I worry that it will not make it simply for being a sci-fi film. After all, they ignored Cuaron's equally ambitious previous effort Children of Men, so there's a good chance that history will repeat itself.
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| Michael B. Jordan in Fruitvale Station |
Best Actor
1. All is Lost - Robert Redford
2. Dallas Buyers Club - Matthew McConaughey
3. Fruitvale Station - Michael B. Jordan
4. 12 Years a Slave - Chiwetel Ejiofir
5. The Wolf of Wall Street - Leonardo DiCaprio*
*Foxcatcher - Steve Carrell
Potential Upsets:
1. American Hustle - Christian Bale
2. The Fifth Estate - Benedict Cumberbatch
3. Inside Llewyn Davis - Oscar Isaac
4. Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom - Idris Elba
5. Rush - Chris Hemsworth
Comments:
I am unsure if Steve Carrell in Foxcatcher is lead or supporting, so he will also show again in that category. Besides that, I believe that provided 12 Years a Slave is the success story I want, the most expendable will be Leonardo DiCaprio. While it looks to be a really fun performance, it does have a disadvantage of looking just like other performances where he plays wealthy millionaires like The Aviator (which he received a Best Actor nomination) and The Great Gatsby. It could be great, but may become underrated and overlooked largely because it is too reminiscent of past performances.
The Potential Upsets in this category are some of the hardest to choose from. I want to believe that Oscar Isaac will turn in a great performance, but I have no guarantee that it will get him a nomination. While the Coen Brothers have become popular with the Academy, I feel like this will be a tough year for them to continue their streak of Best Picture/Best Actor nominations. Also, with Idris Elba playing Nelson Mandela (a role that Morgan Freeman received a Best Actor nomination for with Invictus), there is a good chance he could make the cut simply for playing a famous figure that is culturally significant. Also, David O. Russell has had a strong track record with actors, including last year's Silver Linings Playbook in which he landed someone in all four categories. Could Christian Bale be returning to the race, this time as a lead?
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| Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine |
Best Actress
1. American Hustle - Amy Adams
2. Blue Jasmine - Cate Blanchett
3. The Past - Berenice Bejo*
4. Philomena - Judi Dench
5. Saving Mr. Banks - Emma Thompson
*August: Osage County - Meryl Streep
Potential Upsets
1. August: Osage County - Julia Roberts
2. Diana - Naomi Watts
3. Grace of Monaco - Nicole Kidman
4. Gravity - Sandra Bullock
5. Labor Day - Kate Winslet
Comments:
I am not really confident about most of the contenders yet in this category. Also, I almost feel confident that Meryl Streep will get a nomination, though I am not sure in which category. If she gets Best Actress, there is a good chance she will steal room from Berenice Bejo, who is getting big buzz from The Past, but the actress nominated for The Artist would have to bow out to favoritism in this category. Also, Cate Blanchett almost seems like the clear front runner at this point and the overall race's first definitive lock. It is only a shame because after my rallying around Amy Adams, it may not be her year. Also, I don't believe that Labor Day is going to have as much Oscar potential as many are speculating, even though the pedigree would suggest otherwise. If it does, former winner (Best Actress - The Reader) Kate Winslet would probably be the best bet.
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| Steve Carrell in Foxcatcher |
Best Supporting Actor
1. American Hustle - Bradley Cooper*
2. The Butler - David Oyelowo
3. Rush - Daniel Bruhl
4. Saving Mr. Banks - Tom Hanks
5. 12 Years a Slave - Michael Fassbender
*Foxcatcher - Steve Carrell
Potential Upsets:
1. August: Osage County - Benedict Cumberbatch
2. Blue Jasmine - Bobby Cannavale
3. Inside Llewyn Davis - John Goodman
4. Labor Day - Josh Brolin
5. Spring Breakers - James Franco
Comments:
I would think that it is hilarious if James Franco makes the final cut. However, the realization that John Goodman has yet to even be nominated as an actor is just a travesty. I admit that the Goldderby statistics are in his favor right now, but who knows what it will look like in the latter months. I believe that Tom Hanks practically is locked, if just for my impending belief that playing the most nominated man in Oscar history is already a strong bias. Again, while I believe that David O. Russell is an expert on getting people Best Actor nominations, if Steve Carrell catches on, I think that Bradley Cooper is out of the race. I also want to hope that with Steve McQueen turning in two of Michael Fassbender's best performances that this contender, which has gotten great reviews at the Venice Film Festival, will help to springboard him into the nominations circuit.
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| Carey Mulligan in Inside Llewyn Davis |
Best Supporting Actress
1. American Hustle - Jennifer Lawrence
2. The Butler - Oprah Winfrey
3. Foxcatcher - Vanessa Redgrave*
4. Fruitvale Station - Octavia Spencer
5. Inside Llewyn Davis - Carey Mulligan
*August: Osage County - Meryl Streep
Potential Upsets:
1. August: Osage County - Margo Martindale
2. Blue Jasmine - Sally Hawkins
3. Her - Amy Adams
4. Nebraska - June Squibb
5. 12 Years a Slave - Lupita Nyongo
Comments:
Not too much of a competition here. While I don't believe that Oprah Winfrey is as great as everyone claimed, there isn't much to dethrone her from at very least a nomination. Seeing as how each of my presumed nominees is a former nominee, this will come across as lackluster as last year's Best Supporting Actor race. I don't feel like there's too many upsets at this moment that stand a chance of ruining the veterans from getting nominated yet again.
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| Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks |
Best Original Screenplay
1. American Hustle
2. Blue Jasmine
3. Fruitvale Station
4. Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Saving Mr. Banks
Potential Upsets:
1. Frances Ha
2. Her
3. The Place Beyond the Pines
4. Nebraska
5. Rush
Comments:
There is little to really argue about yet in this category. I almost agree 100% with the Gold Derby statistics. I would love to see Frances Ha get the underdog credit that it has been building since its release, but for the time being, the only film that I can see posing a threat is Rush. I think that while Nebraska may be a surprise nominee, I feel like I can't vouch for it until I see more proof.
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| Leonardo DiCaprio in The Wolf of Wall Street |
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Before Midnight
2. Foxcatcher
3. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
4. 12 Years a Slave
5. The Wolf of Wall Street
Potential Upsets:
1. August: Osage County
2. Blue is the Warmest Color
3. The Butler
4. Labor Day
5. The Monuments Men
Comments:
Another almost solid category. I believe that Before Midnight will follow in the path of its equally acclaimed predecessor Before Sunset and get a nomination. There is nothing yet to complain about any of these, though with August: Osage County becoming one of my unexpected potential upsets, I am going to assume it could easily overthrow The Secret Life of Walter Mitty. As conflicted as I am, I feel like the screenplay will be where that film gets a nomination. Also, with the Academy recognizing foreign films such as last year's Amour, I am wondering if Blue is the Warmest Color will be a surprise success, notably because it won the Palme d'Or at Cannes.
What do you think? Any favorites or big predictions? What is overlooked here?
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