"Toy Story 4," "Frozen II," and the Race for the Best Animated Film Oscar

Scene from Frozen II

This morning, Disney released the trailer for their latest film Frozen II. Most audiences will know the franchise very well, in part because of the 2013 film but also because this is the third year in a row that Elsa and Anna will have appeared on the big screen. Following Olaf's Frozen Adventure in 2017 and brief cameos in Wreck-It Ralph: Ralph Breaks the Internet in 2018, it's the long-awaited follow-up to the highest-grossing animated film in history that also spawned two Oscar wins. Considering that this trailer is likely to play in front of Toy Story 4 in 10 days, it also begins to raise another question: how is this year's Best Animated Film Oscar category shaking out? Have we seen the winner already? Considering that Frozen II AND Toy Story 4 are both sequels to previous winners, the answer may be staring us in the face. That is if the pattern continues to hold up.

One of the most exciting parts of 2018 so far was at The Academy Awards following the announcement of who won Best Animated Film. For the first time since Rango in 2011, the answer wasn't one of the towering family film giants Disney or Pixar, but Sony Animation's Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. And for good reason. The animation was built for the film and featured one of the most exciting stories of the year. However, it isn't likely that the pattern will hold in the year to come, save for a potential late-Fall release on par with Spider-Verse. For now, it's looking like a bit of deja vu, which is odd given the lack of repeat offenders in this category.

In the 18 years since the Best Animated Film category was announced, there has only been one traditional sequel to win the category: Toy Story 3 (which is also the last animated film nominated for Best Picture). At the time it was considered a perfect end to Pixar's finest franchise, and one that was full of heart, humor, and sadness. It's hard to ignore the phenomenon that was Pixar between 1995 and 2010, especially given that they rarely fumbled. While their post-2010 work may see more misses and sequels that failed to get nominations, they still remain an indomitable force at the Oscars, and it does raise certain questions about this year's ceremony: who is going to win the top prize?

Considering that sequels like Finding Dory, Cars 3, and Monsters University all failed to get nominated, it's tough to make a case for Toy Story 4 being a done deal. Yes, the short playing before it stands a better chance of getting in there, especially since Disney and Pixar remain two of the only providers of regularly produced shorts that the public can actually see. This isn't to say that Toy Story 4 brings with it certain favoritism in the industry. For starters, its status as the first feature-length CG film gives it a boost and the consistency from sequel-to-sequel is a plus. It helps that it has heart and characters so beloved that they have existed as shorts in the interim since 2010. That's not a bad thing, but considering what it's up against, it's tough to make a strong case for the film.

In theory, Toy Story 3 benefited from being the highest-grossing animated film at the time at $1.02 billion. Since, it has been beaten only three times, including the current record holder Frozen at $1.29 billion. As much as this category should be about quality, it's hard to ignore the bigger impact of Frozen on the general public. Woody and Buzz may be older icons, but they weren't the ones with memorable cameos in Ralph Breaks the Internet. They haven't been on the big screen in YEARS. They also haven't produced a hit song on par with "Let It Go" since the '90s. As much as nostalgia could play an impact, it's two towering giants fighting each other for dominance and, in a moment where media about women has reached critical mass, Frozen II already feels like it has more going for it. It's true that the film could be a lackluster sequel, even if it becomes the second-highest grossing film in history. 

Still, it's likely that these are the two competitors for Best Animated Film that are currently going. It does seem unfair to go back to a cultural norm after an exciting and revolutionary winner in 2018, but that's just how these things go. Films from GKids, Laika Studios, or Studio Ghibli, unfortunately, don't stand much of a chance of winning, even if they are aesthetically superior. All that can be suggested is that the modern group of voters look past what's popular and go to what's great. Even then, it feels like too much to ask when popularity is just as important to how something's greatness is perceived. A box office bomb still impacts voting on a prestige film, and nobody can deny that Robert and Kristen Lopez's new music is probably going to be more earworms for the ages. 

Scene from How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

But let's suggest that Toy Story 4 and Frozen II escape the critical darling bump. What if they're just perceived as sequels that get ignored. What else could possibly take the category? In some ways, American animation has had a better year than one could expect. Among the obvious Oscar darlings is Dreamworks Animation's excellent conclusion to the How to Train Your Dragon franchise with The Hidden World. Between 2010 and 2019, the franchise has released three films. The first lost to Toy Story 3 in 2010 and the sequel lost to Big Hero 6 in 2014. Considering that this is the rare non-Pixar franchise that actually pushes artistry and storytelling forward in meaningful ways, it would be great if the voters recognized the series' brilliance and beauty by awarding it symbolically with this one film, Lord of the Rings: Return of the King-style. It isn't likely to gross as much as the other films, but it definitely ranks among the best in modern American animation.

There are other contenders likely at play. In spite of a less-than-stellar box office, Laika Studios' latest Missing Link can be seen to make the cut. After all, the stop motion company has had a consistent track record of playing second banana to the other studios and have had all four previous entries nominated in this category. Again, it would be great to see another studio gain recognition for hard work, but Missing Link did more than live up to its title by under-performing at the box office. Other major films of the year include The LEGO Movie: The Second Part, though it may follow in its prequel's footsteps and be disqualified for not quite fitting within the realm of proper animation technique. Similarly, there is A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, which (if released stateside) would make it the second Shaun the Sheep movie nominated in the category (if you haven't seen the original, it's a delightful experience). 

There's, of course, a need to consider international cinema, though that goes beyond my personal knowledge. So, what other major releases could compete from American animators? It's a bit difficult to say. The Secret Life of Pets 2 could, though Illumination hasn't been in the category since Despicable Me 2 in 2013. Similarly, other films like Wonder Park and Uglydolls look to be lacking in threat. The good news is that there's room for international cinema to make a dent, though it would be more impressive if one of them managed to take down the giants of animated cinema. Mirai was never going to win the category last year, but hopefully one day Toho could join Studio Ghibli in beating Disney and Pixar, and maybe even Blue Sky and Dreamworks. 

Toy Story 4

But if this summer's going to teach us anything, it's going to be a predictable year for Best Animated Film. As with Toy Story 3, the sequel is going to produce plenty of acclaim and box office while showing its only true threat (Frozen II) in the trailers. It would be difficult to imagine a competitor or even an original film, beating either of these sequels this year. Either way, the one record that stands to be broken is that they will be the first franchise to have TWO Best Animated Film winners. While it may seem unimpressive since both studios dominate, it's a tad impressive given that more often than not voters tend to ignore sequels in favor of original content. Does anyone honestly think that Spies in Disguise stands any chance here?

So yes, the Frozen II trailer looks like a perfect step up in animation from the original. It's likely to do big numbers because Elsa and Anna are icons now. But now the big questions are going to rise: who will win the category? It's true that everything is a mystery at this point, but it's not surprising that the race for this category is already determined by predictable variables. Hopefully, in the near future, that won't be the case. Then again, that would require voters to appreciate a less American viewpoint in their narratives, and of course to ignore towering box office numbers. I personally would love to see How to Train Your Dragon get an overdue win, but it plays second fiddle to Disney and Pixar every time. That's just how it is. One can hope that the voters have learned from Spider-Verse that things need to be mixed up not just once every now and then, but all the time. It's been true in other categories recently, but now it's time to see animation follow suit. If not for the award, then for the prestige that comes with exposing audiences to great art that gets nominated but otherwise ignored.