It's Early June, Have We Already Seen Any Serious Oscar Contenders?

There's no denying that the upcoming Oscar season is going to be a very special one. While every year brings with it a handful of worthy surprises, this one is framed instead by the world around it. For starters, the COVID-19 pandemic has caused the shutdown of theaters and forced The Academy to allow streaming movies for the first (and probably only) time in their history. Even if we haven't yet gotten to the traditional awards season, it's interesting to ask the question: have we seen any big players yet? I'd like to think that we have, especially with the presence of such acclaimed movies like Shirley, Da 5 Bloods, and dark horse contender The King of Staten Island.

All of these films have one thing in common. They're thankfully good movies in a time when we're dried out with good-at-best titles. In fact, things are looking up in the month ahead as more streaming options give promising results. So, what does this Oscar season look like, and have we seen anything of value just yet? If we're looking at a case where theaters will be shutting back down due to an expansion of the virus, I'm willing to bet that we have a handful of things already on our docket, hopefully making for one of the most exciting and off years we've ever seen.

It has been a major sticking point for The Academy in recent years. Many people believe that there's a war between them and streaming services like Netflix, Amazon Studios, and Hulu that has prevented them from willing major awards. While that has been debunked in recent years, they still have yet to win the coveted Best Picture title, making it interesting to proposition to know if they ever will. Speaking as Netflix was one of the most-nominated studios of this past season, there's reason to believe that a total shift over to streaming could mean that this is the year we see them win, especially at a time when it features Spike Lee's Da 5 Bloods and later this year with David Fincher's Mank (due October). 

Their game has gotten increasingly more exciting with each passing year, and I am curious to see how things are impacted because of the Coronavirus. Of course, I think health is more important and those opening theaters prematurely is a bad idea. Considering the direction of current events, I imagine that the theater-going experience is about to have a massive change. If nothing else, major chains are contemplating bankruptcy and the very model that we're used to is threatening to change for the worst. What will the moviegoing experience look like by the end of 2020? It's a scary proposition, though it only makes Netflix's banking on streaming all the more noteworthy.

Though just as interesting is the question as to whether we've actually seen an Oscar-nominated movie yet. I suppose you can argue that films like Trolls: World Tour will have a place in the Best Animated Film category (though I hope that changes), but what about the big picture? What movies will stand out from the crowd when the season comes to an end? 

I think what's keeping things from feeling certain is that the best releases of this moment aren't conventional Oscar nominees, at least until you spin them. There's Da 5 Bloods, which is Lee's follow-up to the Oscar-winning BlacKkKlansman. Considering that it's already one of the most acclaimed movies of 2020 so far, there's reason to hope that it will be in consideration given how revered Lee has become in recent years, and how the film promises to be one of the most important and provocative stories of the year (review coming soon). There's no denying that it's maybe the first contender that you can think of as more than wishful thinking.

The trick is convincing the public that Shirley and The King of Staten Island are worthy of some consideration. Shirley, a film about Shirley Jackson, finds Elisabeth Moss at one of her best performances. She's overdue for a nomination after an exemplary career and she brings a charisma that is eerie and fun to the role. Similarly, it does feature an intriguing turn by Michael Stuhlbarg, who in 2017 starred in three Best Picture nominees and thus has a built-in reputation with The Academy going back to 2009's A Serious Man. Given that The Academy loves: A. Films about real people, and; B. Films about crazy ladies, then Shirley feels like the perfect push for a contender.

The King of Staten Island may be a harder push given that Pete Davidson doesn't have much of a career yet. Even if it's a personal journey into his life, there's no guarantee that he'll be considered the charismatic lead worthy of breaking into the Best Actor field. However, one can argue that it's got a better shot at Best Original Screenplay, which has favored comedies with more frequency. Just looking at Judd Apatow projects, there have been nominations in these categories for Bridesmaids and The Big Sick, showing that there is some track record for the sleeper-hit comedy, though that's provided this film stands any chance.

If there's any film with an even longer shot, it's the taboo subject of abortion with Never Rarely Sometimes Always. So far it's my favorite film of 2020 and one that has such a provocative and honest text that I think is relevant. By normalizing the process, it manages to raise the conversation about women's rights, and it's more than a gimmick. Everything in Eliza Hittman's film is purposeful, reflecting something honest. Before the pandemic, it was scheduled to play in theaters and there's a good chance that the word of mouth may have made it more recognizable, leading to conversations that clearly aren't there right now with the film.

Whatever the case may be, it's exciting to know that there are films now available to stream that are worth watching. In general, this is how the summer season usually is, but this time feels different. We're looking at the place where films rarely get a lengthy conversation. While Netflix produces a few hits a year, traditional streaming is still tough to navigate because it feels more disposable, less investment in having to drop money on it. Still, I want to believe that in a year where the rules have changed that we're going to see the most radical nominees imaginable. Will that be what it takes to get Moss an overdue nomination? Maybe Davidson will be an upset. It's hard to know, as this will be the greatest battle between the old and new guard yet. With that said, there's some great movies out there this weekend to watch, so at least we got that going for us.