The Various Columns

Tuesday, January 23, 2018

Oscar Predictions vs. Nominations: How Did I Do?

Scene from Dunkirk
This morning marked the announcement of this year's Oscar nominations. Like most years, it wasn't without its surprises. Like most people, I decided to make predictions for what would make the cut. It wasn't my best year, but there's a lot that I got right. So, let's look at how well I did at making my predictions in all of the major categories and determine whether or not I did a good job.


Best Picture

My List
-The Big Sick
-Call Me By Your Name
-Dunkirk
-Get Out
-I, Tonya
-Lady Bird
-The Post
-The Shape of Water
-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri


The Nominees
-Call Me by Your Name
-Darkest Hour
-Dunkirk
-Get Out
-Lady Bird
-Phantom Thread
-The Post
-The Shape of Water
-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Predictions: 7 of 9

Best Director

My Predictions
-Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
-Jordan Peele (Get Out)
-Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
-Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

-Martin McDonagh (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)


The Nominees
-Christopher Nolan (Dunkirk)
-Jordan Peele (Get Out)
-Greta Gerwig (Lady Bird)
-Paul Thomas Anderson (Phantom Thread)
-Guillermo del Toro (The Shape of Water)

Predictions: 4 of 5


Best Actor

My Predictions
-Timothee Chalamet (Call Me By Your Name)
-Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
-James Franco (The Disaster Artist)
-Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
-Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)


The Nominees
-Timothée Chalamet (Call Me by Your Name)
-Daniel Day-Lewis (Phantom Thread)
-Daniel Kaluuya (Get Out)
-Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour)
-Denzel Washington (Roman J. Israel, Esq)

Predictions: 4 of 5


Best Actress

My Predictions
-Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
-Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
-Meryl Streep (The Post)
-Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
-Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)


The Nominees
-Sally Hawkins (The Shape of Water)
-Frances McDormand (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
-Margot Robbie (I, Tonya)
-Saoirse Ronan (Lady Bird)
-Meryl Streep (The Post)

Predictions: 5 of 5


Best Supporting Actor

-Michael Stuhlbarg (Call Me By Your Name)
-Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
-Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
-Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
-Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)


The Nominees
-Willem Dafoe (The Florida Project)
-Woody Harrelson (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)
-Richard Jenkins (The Shape of Water)
-Christopher Plummer (All the Money in the World)
-Sam Rockwell (Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri)

Predictions: 4 of 5


Best Supporting Actress

My Predictions
-Holly Hunter (The Big Sick)
-Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
-Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
-Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)

-Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)


The Nominees
-Mary J. Blige (Mudbound)
-Allison Janney (I, Tonya)
-Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread)
-Laurie Metcalf (Lady Bird)
-Octavia Spencer (The Shape of Water)

Predictions: 4 out of 5




Overall: 28 of 34
Accuracy: 82%

The surprises definitely caught me off guard, meaning that all except one category had one wild card that kept my predictions from perfectly aligning. As much as I am sad to have not predicted a perfect score, at least the ones that I was wrong about were generally more interesting than what I picked. It's a great year for Oscar-nominated movies, and that's enough to please me. 

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